Friday, 3 March 2017

Pakistan in 2017

CPEC is very renowned project in Pakistan these days. According to Government it is fate changer or game changer of Pakistan.
                                       
                                         I was thinking that in our Books we learned that Agriculture is back bone of Pakistan . Agriculture of Pakistan if i explain little bit water managed this is ignored sector of Govt of Punjab and Federal . Second Forestation which is very vital for economic as well as environmental purpose and for beauty which is ignored section both Punjab and Federal Govt.

Similar case with live stock , Pakistan is second producer of Buffalo milk after after India in the word which is also neglected part of Pakistan Government.

Crops and rice crop or other are not getting attention of Govt. and no support price is fixed in country.

Now Favorite area of Govt is Roads motorway if any honest and independent architecture see the drawing and road in terms of cost, flexibility, economy, effectiveness, and future return that is excellent even in privileged city Lahore.

Pakistan export are decreasing . Quality education in doubtful at the same time neither i have seen speaking English nor in Chinese.

Govt i have observed have taken advantage of decreased price of Crude oil in 2007 oil price was 140 Dollar per barrel  in 2017 i have seen only 40 Dollar per barrel. Due to which inflation in country remained under control but Govt could not reap this opportunity any how.

In 2008 Benazir  Income Support Program me launched , according to current Govt that people are being made beggars but  present Govt has doubled the budget of this fund.

Now we analyse subsidies present Govt is spending nearly 1000 billion per year on subsidies which has no specific and meaningful purpose.e.g subsidy of Metro bus service and Lahore transport authority.

For positive point and hope CPEC is good but not enough that cover above faults of Govt. CPEC will generate revenue but can not compensate above losses any way.

Friday, 14 October 2016

CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridore

China is making big investment of 46 Billion Dollar in Pakistan in infrastructure and energy and infrastructure mainly. Now doubt it is the shortest route to china and good opportunity for Pakistan to exploit the china . This route is mainly for trade as china is biggest exporters to Europe and Middle east and China require energy resources from Middle east. This route will provide cheap energy resources and cheap value chain for China product for export.

Pakistan will receive reasonable income  from this route.

It is feared that Pakistan will become trading country instead of semi manufacturing country.
Pakistan exports are continuously decreasing especially textile in spite of  zero load shedding to industry in recent years. This shows there is structural problems which could not be solved. Even Pakistan could not increase export of garments even in presence of GSP status of Pakistan.

Pakistan Balance of trade with China is already negative if industry could not be corrected then Pakistan has to suffer. Due to CPEC there will be flood of chines products which will be negative for Pakistan and industry.

China volume of trade with rest of world through CPEC is encouraging. It will create opportunities for Pakistan of new foreign direct and indirect investment. CPEC will also create job to an unpredictable extent.

Again railway is the cheapest mode of transportation. Under CPEC roads are being constructed these motorways if analysed critically by an architecture expert are not cost effective not efficient in term of distance and not consistent with local road network of Pakistan. e.g Lahore to Karachi shortest route can be constructed nearly 950 km but which is signed that is nearly 1150 km such type of blunders and security and finance cost of these project should be managed actively and intelligently.

Now we can not take conclusive opinion but looking fifty fifty.  For positive response Pakistan has to make steps for industry and education purposeful education other wise CPEC result will not be very promising.

Wednesday, 5 October 2016

STRUCTURAL REFORMS IN SOCIETY GOVT

As subcontinent society is conservative in terms of Gender inequality, Caste system and many more such type of Social Evils.

In the Statics mind society Govt has to play role in improving the situation and to minimize social and economics small evils which also create positive effect in society.

In Pakistan an Islamic state but a person who has three daughter , his problems start at the time of  daughter birth then  his daughter go school problem of pick and drop to school and after that dowry for their marriage and then continuous gifts to her daughter.

Similar birth of a daughter is supposed a big tension any how. Same is the case of caste system

Nawaz Govt and his brother Shahbaz Govt in a big province has even no such vision to diffuse such social and cultural evils by the time . They only run the Government in Autocratic manner because  people of pakistan has limited vision of development limited upto only roads and CPEC.


Liegeslation , Reforms in every sector of life , Solid economic development and peace of mind of people is not priority of N league Govt but Only construction of uncoordinated roads .


It is responsibility of International institutions like world bank, and other donor to critically monitor the projects of Govt and pressurize for improvement.

Monday, 18 July 2016

Pakistan Economy Dynamics

PAKISTAN economy progressing to a relatively positive point. Positive points are these. Successful or unsuccessful operation against terrorist and end of political tumor or efforts for justice has gone cool.  A Last year, Controlled, launch of the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) sparked Pakistan’s economic growth. The (CPEC) has also positively influenced Western analytics about Pakistan’s economy. Time will tell what (CPEC) will do but it created positive image of Pakistan in economic world.
Pakistan’s middle class has also been growing steadily which, according to some estimates, has crossed 80 million in a population of 200 million. Around 60 per cent of the population is in the working class category. The number of people living below the poverty line went down from 34.4 per cent in 2002 to 12.4 per cent in 2011. Pakistan’s entrepreneurs and businessmen are becoming more skilled and self-confident. The Government has also been pursuing a largely productive reform programme with the IMF.
According to the latest World Bank’s Macroeconomic Outlook, Pakistan’s economy will grow by 4.5 per cent to 4.8 per cent in the next two years, with the expansion in industry and services. Investment will grow to 15.4 per cent of the GDP by 2017. There are forecasts that this year Pakistan may transition from a frontier economy to an emerging market. American magazine Forbes has called Pakistan the “next success story” and Bloomberg the “best undiscovered investment opportunity”.
Despite all these projections, we remain skeptical about Pakistan’s economic outlook. Caution is one thing; cynicism quite another. Caution will prepare us for future challenge but criticism will disappoint us but positive and constructive criticism is yet to be a future topic and development.   A high-ranking Chinese Communist Party official, Li Jun, who visited Pakistan last week, assured his gloomy Pakistan interlocutors that if China could transform itself from one of the poorest countries in the late 1970s to the second largest in the world today, with a $11 trillion GDP, Pakistan too could tread a similar path with its $245 billion economy and proven advantages of location, resources and educated class.
We still have problems – serious problems – to surmount. Severe power shortages, as well as inadequate investment in human capital, science, technology and innovation hamper realization of our full potential. Despite the projected spurts in our growth, youth unemployment will remain high. Pakistan therefore needs to grow by 6 to 8 per cent to assimilate new, young entrants into the work force. Our exports remain dismally low at $24.5 billion, the bulk of which is primary commodities or minimally processed products, for a country as big as Pakistan. This is matter of concern working class youth is increasing but industry like textile, leather is squeeze. According to some estimates Pakistan federal and provincial especially Punjab is giving subsidies which amounts to nearly 1400 billion per year but without solid direction and purpose. In spite of very low oil prices and low inflation and low labor rate Pakistan could not reap the GSP Plus status. Agriculture which is backbone of Pakistan economy showed negative growth also. Budget is devoted of Especially Province of Punjab on Road infrastructure but traffic problem is becoming more complex day by day. Looks like fruit less or decreased fruit of the efforts and capital.
Urbanization is spontaneous without planning even metropolitan cities are not being planned. Healthy housing and creational projects are being ignored but roads which are not compatible with each other. E.g Lahore metro bus and Metro train but no union station is being planned. Education is becoming business Pakistan that will not generate result as it should be for motivating results. The energy crunch hobbling our industry would be eased by 
(CPEC)’s early harvest projects forecast to mature by 2018-2020 and add estimated 10,000 MW to our national grid. Similarly, infrastructure projects under cand fibre optic connectivity – will create conditions for Pakistan’s rapid industrial growth. To fulfill these soft loans cost we have to improve our hard and soft exports.
 If we do not believe in our economic future, nobody else would.  Our belief in Pakistan’s economic future should stem from data, trends, environment, and the decisions being made by the public and private sectors.
Attracting town is new fashion in Pakistan even in small cities. Bahria Town is the Largest Hosing Society is South Asia. Our big groups are double minded whether to go in Property or their forefather business. Business of property is more profitable than any manufacturing or trading.
Red tapes culture at Pakistan port and delay in shipment should be discouraged and exported oriented investment with respect to profit ,security , justice and honor should be encouraged.
It is only Pakistan local, provincial and federal Government can do with collective and coordinated efforts not only metro bus and orange train and motorways.
India needs trade route via Lahore to Peshawar Afghanistan and central Asia states which also very important for Pakistan and Pakistan is not giving importance to this route. CPEC and this route should be given both due respect and care.      

Friday, 17 June 2016

Role of Governments of Subcontinent Countries

Government role is multidimensional which includes economic , educational, social, environmental,foreign policy role, industrial policy and many more.

Here I would like to encompass  only Global warming and apathy   of Subcontinent Governments.
I am writing about Pakistan India especially. Role of Government in economic, social,cultural and overall vision of the society. I only focus on Environmental changes.  World Temperature is increasing in Pakistan some areas temperature during day time reached up to 50 degree Centigrade. Even Lahore temperature went up to 47 degree Centigrade. Global warming is an international issue. Both countries if only make investment in forest both have reasonable rainfall suitable for forest. If forest are properly planted and cared in both countries , temperature of sub-continent can be decreased up to 2 to 3 degree Centigrade with in coming five years and onward. Forest have not only economic advantage have many other advantages like food of live stock and both countries are very fertile in livestock, poverty allivation , precautionary measure to stop floods,

In subcontinent many NGO,s are but if Govt will do , its impact and result will be nearly 40 to 50 times more fruitful.

Govt can involve students, public servant, and many other volunteers and other Govt department people.


Thursday, 16 June 2016

Future of Pakistan Viewing in 2016

Future of Pakistan is to be categorized  in different aspects we will take it shortly one by one .
Economic Future. As Tax revenue are increasing but exports are decreasing, Foreign Remittances are increasing but industry and foreign investment is decreasing . China investment is coming but small roads are being ignored. Education institution are increasing but employment is not increasing . Industrial estates in different small cities are being constructed but no factories are being installed. Purpose to say Agriculture back bone of Pakistan is under pressure and government is also ignoring . Similarly floods are there but no proper water management is Govt Priority. Bank deposits in banks are increasing similarly Govt borrowing are continuously increasing. Conclusion is that  no sector is Govt specific priority Industry, agriculture, education, law in order, justice but Taxes . In simple Economy of Pakistan category is medium.


Social sectors customs , traditions , cast system, town planning, cities developments, and housing management has low chances of improvement.

Political challenges are there relation with India, Afghanistan and Iran are not very good. But Pakistan Army is strong , Army has local support. Any how no peace and not big turmoil.


Some positive point Pakistan has good infrastructure, people are hard  worker, people are content, cheapest city of the world, good strategic location connection oil rich countries and exporting countries like China. Oil prices are low that is good sign for Pakistan economy. Interest rate has gone low. But foreign investment is decreasing .

Pakistan has to focus on result oriented agriculture, industrial, housing, educational , Trade, Roads, Forests, live stock, culture, Terrorism, Justice system, law in order, foreign policy  which can bring positive changes in country other wise difference between rich and poor will increase continuously.


Army has substantial influence over the politics of Pakistan foreign policy  of supporting Taliban has failed in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

Global warming is not managed by Governments and other institutions. Subsidies of Govt. has no specific direction , no body can understand what are priorities of Pakistan establishment.

Only very popular hope is China Pakistan economic Corridor . Balance of Trade with china is already negative , what will be future of already underpressure and sick industry of Pakistan . Time will tell all these facts. But we can not present very rosy picture of Pakistan.


In nutshell social , cultural, political, religious, economical , security,justice and freedom positive changes will come but at a very, very slow pace. Only Government can enhance this pace by its reforms.









Friday, 1 February 2013

Motorways and Pakistan

In Pakistan  population is evenly scattered throughout the area except Blochistan. That is why Pakistan need scatted roads to cover all population needs. But Motorway culture is started by Nawaz Sharif . As one type of corruption is the defalcation of funds this most common and understood by our people, I am discussing other type of corruption in which funds are not defalcated but the out come of these funds is use less this is called policy corruption. As Distance from Lahore to Pindi is 280 Kilometer but Nawaz Sharif Government made Motor Way which is 340 Kilometer. Opportunity cost of Motor is very heigh if u made motor way via  Hafiz Abad, to Mandi Bahuldin, then near to Chakwal it is only 240 kilometer . You can save Rs. 100 Billion in terms of cost of road. So you can say 100 Billion is wasted on Road and many billion are wasted on Fuel , mantinance, time is very precious and many more. Similarly Lahore to Faisal Abad Distance is 165 Kilometer through Motor way it can be only 110 kilometer through Jaranwala, Shariq Pur and to Chung , then you can enter in to centre of Lahore. It is a corruption , i can not tell you in terms of fuel , time etc.



Shahzad Akram
sakram8656@gmail.com