Pakistan Economy Dynamics

PAKISTAN economy progressing to a relatively positive point. Positive points are these. Successful or unsuccessful operation against terrorist and end of political tumor or efforts for justice has gone cool.  A Last year, Controlled, launch of the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) sparked Pakistan’s economic growth. The (CPEC) has also positively influenced Western analytics about Pakistan’s economy. Time will tell what (CPEC) will do but it created positive image of Pakistan in economic world.
Pakistan’s middle class has also been growing steadily which, according to some estimates, has crossed 80 million in a population of 200 million. Around 60 per cent of the population is in the working class category. The number of people living below the poverty line went down from 34.4 per cent in 2002 to 12.4 per cent in 2011. Pakistan’s entrepreneurs and businessmen are becoming more skilled and self-confident. The Government has also been pursuing a largely productive reform programme with the IMF.
According to the latest World Bank’s Macroeconomic Outlook, Pakistan’s economy will grow by 4.5 per cent to 4.8 per cent in the next two years, with the expansion in industry and services. Investment will grow to 15.4 per cent of the GDP by 2017. There are forecasts that this year Pakistan may transition from a frontier economy to an emerging market. American magazine Forbes has called Pakistan the “next success story” and Bloomberg the “best undiscovered investment opportunity”.
Despite all these projections, we remain skeptical about Pakistan’s economic outlook. Caution is one thing; cynicism quite another. Caution will prepare us for future challenge but criticism will disappoint us but positive and constructive criticism is yet to be a future topic and development.   A high-ranking Chinese Communist Party official, Li Jun, who visited Pakistan last week, assured his gloomy Pakistan interlocutors that if China could transform itself from one of the poorest countries in the late 1970s to the second largest in the world today, with a $11 trillion GDP, Pakistan too could tread a similar path with its $245 billion economy and proven advantages of location, resources and educated class.
We still have problems – serious problems – to surmount. Severe power shortages, as well as inadequate investment in human capital, science, technology and innovation hamper realization of our full potential. Despite the projected spurts in our growth, youth unemployment will remain high. Pakistan therefore needs to grow by 6 to 8 per cent to assimilate new, young entrants into the work force. Our exports remain dismally low at $24.5 billion, the bulk of which is primary commodities or minimally processed products, for a country as big as Pakistan. This is matter of concern working class youth is increasing but industry like textile, leather is squeeze. According to some estimates Pakistan federal and provincial especially Punjab is giving subsidies which amounts to nearly 1400 billion per year but without solid direction and purpose. In spite of very low oil prices and low inflation and low labor rate Pakistan could not reap the GSP Plus status. Agriculture which is backbone of Pakistan economy showed negative growth also. Budget is devoted of Especially Province of Punjab on Road infrastructure but traffic problem is becoming more complex day by day. Looks like fruit less or decreased fruit of the efforts and capital.
Urbanization is spontaneous without planning even metropolitan cities are not being planned. Healthy housing and creational projects are being ignored but roads which are not compatible with each other. E.g Lahore metro bus and Metro train but no union station is being planned. Education is becoming business Pakistan that will not generate result as it should be for motivating results. The energy crunch hobbling our industry would be eased by 
(CPEC)’s early harvest projects forecast to mature by 2018-2020 and add estimated 10,000 MW to our national grid. Similarly, infrastructure projects under cand fibre optic connectivity – will create conditions for Pakistan’s rapid industrial growth. To fulfill these soft loans cost we have to improve our hard and soft exports.
 If we do not believe in our economic future, nobody else would.  Our belief in Pakistan’s economic future should stem from data, trends, environment, and the decisions being made by the public and private sectors.
Attracting town is new fashion in Pakistan even in small cities. Bahria Town is the Largest Hosing Society is South Asia. Our big groups are double minded whether to go in Property or their forefather business. Business of property is more profitable than any manufacturing or trading.
Red tapes culture at Pakistan port and delay in shipment should be discouraged and exported oriented investment with respect to profit ,security , justice and honor should be encouraged.
It is only Pakistan local, provincial and federal Government can do with collective and coordinated efforts not only metro bus and orange train and motorways.
India needs trade route via Lahore to Peshawar Afghanistan and central Asia states which also very important for Pakistan and Pakistan is not giving importance to this route. CPEC and this route should be given both due respect and care.      


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